Συλλογές
Τίτλος Optimal responses to an infectious disease
Δημιουργός Magirou, Evangelos, Μαγείρου, Ευάγγελος
Συντελεστής Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of Informatics
Τύπος Text
Φυσική περιγραφή 18p.
Γλώσσα en
Αναγνωριστικό https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.12634
Περίληψη We analyze an optimal control version of a simple SIRS epidemiology model. The policy maker can adopt policies to diminish the contact rate between infected and susceptible individuals, at a specific economic cost. The arrival of a vaccine will immediately end the epidemic. Total or partial immunity is modeled, while the contact rate can exhibit a (user specified) seasonality. The problem is solved in a spreadsheet environment. A reasonable parameter selection leads to optimal policies which are similar to those followed by different countries. A mild response relying on eventually reaching a high immunity level is optimal if ample health facilities are available. On the other hand limited health care facilities lead to strict lock downs while moderate ones allow a flattening of the curve approach.
Λέξη κλειδί Epidemiology
COVID 19
Optimal control
Ημερομηνία έκδοσης 26-05-2020
Άδεια χρήσης https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/