Authoritarian constraints: democratization as a prerequisite for long-term economic progress

Abstract

This dissertation investigates the dynamics of long-term economic progress under nondemocratic governance, exploring both the strengths and limitations of authoritarian regimes in a globalized world.The common anti-democratic narrative is that authoritarian systems have demonstrated an ability to achieve rapid industrialization and economic growth through centralized control and state-led development. However, the findings reveal that these regimes face significant structural barriers to sustaining long-term growth. Autocracies face challenges such as systemic inflexibility and lack of inclusivity, which limit their ability to adapt to economic transitions. While some petrostates have achieved high-income status despite being dictatorships, their reliance on resource wealth highlights the fragility of these achievements.This study shows that globalization not only helps open up economies but also increases people's demands for political freedom and transparency. Authoritarian governments that try to keep their economies open while holding onto political control often face growing pressure, especially as richer populations push for more say in how they are governed. The findings suggest that hybrid strategies, such as “guided democracy,” may provide temporary solutions but fail to address the structural issues necessary for long-term success.Empirical data and case studies further demonstrate the advantages of democratic governance in addressing contemporary challenges. Democratic systems, with their institutional flexibility and emphasis on inclusivity, are better equipped to foster innovation, integrate diverse perspectives, and adapt to globalization’s rapid changes. The findings underscore that sustaining long-term economic progress necessitates practices fundamentally incompatible with authoritarianism, inevitably highlighting the necessity of democratization.Ultimately, this dissertation contributes to the broader discourse on globalization, governance, and development, emphasizing the systemic reforms required for authoritarian systems to thrive in an interconnected and rapidly evolving world.