Sector rotation in the US market, based on exploiting option information and implied volatility forecasting power

Abstract

The shape of the volatility smirk has significant cross-sectional predictive power for future equity returns. Strategies based on several option measures predict returns and alphas on the underlying stock. In the present study we examine the return-­‐implied volatility relation by using sector Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) panel data (time-series cross-section), instead of the typical stock data. We attempted to create portfolio rotation strategies on sectors with constructed variables through Implied Volatility skew measures in US market. We try illustrate that option volatility skew predicts underlying ETF returns using two different methodologies.At first we conduct a panel regression to examine whether volatility skew can predict the next month’s return. Finally, we construct monthly long-short trading strategies based on the volatility skew measure.