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Polling misses - causes and treatment
(2025-09-26) Nikolaidou, Marina-Nektaria; Νικολαΐδου, Μαρίνα-Νεκταρία; Psarakis, Stelios; Chasiotis, Vasileios; Papageorgiou, Ioulia
This thesis analyses the phenomenon of polling misses, mentioning the causes that led to them and proposing treatments to address them. Starting with a general into about polling, moving on to a historical overview and highlighting methodological developments and key failures over time. The second part is referring to the main causes of developing those misses and general errors in the polling process, including sampling bias, nonresponse, turnout misestimation, question design, weighting inaccuracies and the hearding. Then methods of treatment are taken down just to insert into the process and improve it, such as improved sampling techniques, adjustments for nonresponse, model-based turnout estimations, refining question design and proper weighting techniques and others. Lastly the practical part involves simulations on a synthetic population reflecting the Greek demographic structure when it comes to age characteristics, where different sample sizes and nonresponse scenarios are tested to see their performance in estimate vote percentages with or without any adjustments like, complete case (estimates with only the available information) and imputation and reweighting methods (where the nonresponse is “treat” it ).