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Environmental policy and spatial structures in urban models
(2011-05-30) Κυριακοπούλου, Ευθυμία; Kyriakopoulou, Efthymia; Vlachou, Andriana; Koundouri, Phoebe; Chalkos, Georgios; Hatzipanayotou, Panos; Vasilakis, Spyros; Yannacopoulos, Athanasios; Xepapadeas, Anastasios
The aim of this thesis is to contribute to the current literature of modern urban economics trying to account for the impact of diffusing pollution, which implies the enforcement of environmental policy, in the internal structure of a given city. The present thesis is divided into three distinct parts, each of which focuses on the spatial structures derived under different agglomeration forces.
Essays in macroeconomics and public finance
Vella, Eugenia; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of International and European Economic Studies; Stengos, Thanasis; Economides, George; Kalyvitis, Sarantis
The objective of this thesis is to provide new insights into the macroeconomic effects of government spending by analyzing theoretically and empirically different expenditure components. The first part studies the productivity effects of public spending on infrastructure in the U.S. by distinguishing between two main components: capital outlays, which aim at the formation of new infrastructure, and operations and maintenance (O&M) outlays, which are required for the repair and safe operation of the existing infrastructure stock. First, I use a so far unexplored time-series dataset from the U.S. Congressional Budget Office to investigate the productive impact of public infrastructure spending by taking into account its composition (capital and O&M) for each government level (federal government and states and localities). The main research question formulated is twofold, namely whether a marginal dollar should be spent for building new infrastructure or repairing the existing one and by which level of government should these expenditures be undertaken. Using a standard GMM framework for the econometric analysis, I find that a rise (fall) in infrastructure expenditures by states and localities (the federal government) would enhance future productivity growth and that the rise in state and local spending should mainly come from additional O&M outlays in the transport sector. Second, I develop a state-level analysis of the productivity effects of infrastructure's O&M spending by accounting for the presence of interstate transboundary spillovers of both capital and O&M spending. As a theoretical background, I first build a multi-jurisdiction model with productive public expenditure, endogenous capital depreciation, network structure and different levels of government. The model illustrates that the spillover effects of O&M spending, which is financed locally, may be substantially different from those of capital outlays, whose provision is based on a co-financing scheme through local taxation and federal matching grants, with the latter being financed by local taxes. In the empirical analysis, I use a new state-level dataset for capital and O&M spending on water and transportation infrastructure, which I have assembled for the period 1978-2000 based on the Census Bureau's State and Local Government Finances series. I follow a semiparametric methodology that allows for tracing potential nonlinearities in the estimated relationships and deriving output elasticities for each state and time period. The empirical findings confirm, first, that interstate spillovers are significantly positive and exceed within-state impacts for O&M (and capital) spending, implying that there is a substantial wedge between the aggregate and the own-state rates of return. Second, the spillover effect of O&M spending is found to be much higher than the corresponding impact of capital spending. The second part of the thesis examines the role of fiscal policy in the form of government spending on infrastructure and environmental care in a growth model with endogenous subjective discounting. I demonstrate using this general-equilibrium model how shifting the allocation of resources from productive government spending to environmental care, which is labeled as a "green spending reform", can procure a double dividend by raising long-run growth and improving environmental conditions, although the environment does not impact the production technology. An immediate implication is that endogenous growth-maximizing policy requires that a non-zero share of government revenues is allocated to the environment vis-à-vis infrastructure. The main mechanism of the model arises from the assumption of endogenous discounting to environmental quality, which can capture the well documented in the literature "life-expectancy effect" of the latter. By promoting agents' patience and thus inducing higher savings, which support capital accumulation, environmental spending plays an indirect productive role, which in combination with the standard growth-promoting role of infrastructure investment, creates a trade-off between the two types of expenditures. As a result, the relationship between long-run growth and the resource allocation to infrastructure vis-à-vis the environment can become non-monotonic.
Essays on asset pricing and market microstructure
Axioglou, Christos; Αξιόγλου, Χρήστος; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of International and European Economic Studies; Skouras, Spyros
The genesis of academic interest in asset pricing dates back to the beginning of the previous century and coincides with the dispute of the ‘casino’ view of financial markets most economists held by that time. According to this view capital gains and losses were seen as outcomes of repeating games of chance and market participants acted as gamblers placing bets based on expectations, counter-expectations, instincts and ‘animal spirits’ (Keynes 1936). Absent of economic content, bet pricing was left within the jurisdiction of applied statistics and/or human psychology. Indeed, financial economics started to flourish soon after such a content was established for asset prices under the term ‘fundamental’ or ‘intrinsic’ asset value (Williams 1938). It represented the value of expected cash flow streams payable to asset holders by the asset issuer, which could be directly linked to the expected economic conditions faced by the issuer. After almost a century of research, fundamental analysis remains the cornerstone of the ‘normative’ tension underlying asset pricing literature (Cochrane 2005) describing how asset prices should behave under a plethora of alternative assumptions on how financial markets discount such expected cash flows. This approach hasbeen expanding towards more realistic assumptions realizing the complexity of financial markets (Johnson, Jefferies, and Hui 2003). The largest chapter of this thesis (Chapter 2) is devoted to the empirical rehabilitation of theoretical assumptions on investors behavior and beliefs. It develops a present-value asset pricing model with an econometrically useful representation that accommodates a plethora of assumptions about beliefs and an empirically plausible specification of dividend dynamics. Using 20th century S&P500 data the model is used to compare the empirical _t of belief assumptions associated with rational expectations, asymmetric information, learning, behavioral effects and evolution and to explore the empirical usefulness of some agnosticism in how beliefs are formed. Among these, asymmetric information is particularly useful both in terms of statistical criteria and in terms of ability to explain the equity premium, excess volatility and predictability of returns. The analysis delineates and confronts some of the obstacles involved in moving beyond present value models that ‘explain stylized facts’ towards models with fully edged econometric representations that can bridge theoretical and empirical work. The remainder of this thesis pertains to selected topics on the microstructure of financial markets, a term invented by Garman (1976) to define the analysis of ‘moment-to-moment’ aggregate exchange behavior.1 Time series processes observed at such high frequencies are often found subject to long memory or long horizon autocorrelation, a fact that implies potentially exploitable arbitrage opportunities that challenge market efficiency. Chapter 3 addresses this issue for the fundamental process of the direction of trades and presents empirical evidence that it is instead subject to periodic daily structural breaks. It is suggested that breaks arise as a consequence of daily variation in order flow direction independently of intra-day events and as a consequence of a natural and widespread daily periodicity in the timing of investment decisions. Therefore, a short memory autoregressive model with daily level shifts is introduced and implemented so as to capture the striking long horizon predictability of trade direction. The adopted approach is found to perform better than the standard long memory (ARFIMA) alternative in terms of statistical metrics and computational efficiency. The last topic concerns price discovery, a key function of financial markets. In the market microstructure literature it has been variously interpreted as \the search for an equilibrium price" (Schreiber and Schwartz 1986), \gathering and interpreting news" (Baillie, Booth, Tse, and Zabotina 2002) or \the incorporation of the information implicit in investor trading into market prices" (Lehmann 2002). It is accepted that the information content of market prices may vary across markets since markets process new information at different rates (Baillie, Booth, Tse, and Zabotina 2002). Furthermore, when an asset is traded in multiple markets, persistent discrepancies in price discovery across markets reflect systematic routing of informed order flow towards a particular market. Chapter 4 examines the current case of inter-market competition in Europe, where national (home) exchanges, former monopolies, compete with emerging new markets, known as alternative trading venues, to attract order flows and trading. The analysis investigates the status of price discovery in major European home exchanges compared to a fairly representative and rapidly expanding alternative trading venue, called Chi-X. My approach considers a broader notion of price discovery across markets than previous studies by analyzing (i) sub-second price changes and (ii) changes in the state of the limit order book (LOB) ran by either market. Both expansions are found useful in revealing that home markets are still more informative than Chi-X in general, conforming with the additional finding that they still attract more informed trading. Nevertheless, auxiliary panel data regressions that control for home markets’ superiority in terms of liquidity, volatility and market activity indicate significant variations in the degree of home markets’ price leadership across countries and highlight the importance of implementable mechanisms for market and execution quality harmonization across Europe.
Essays on general training, contracts and the relationship between power and efficiency
(Athens University of Economics and Business, 2010) Bilanakos, Christos; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of International European Economic Studies
Doctoral thesis - Athens University of Economics and Business
Essays on labour economics
(23-06-2020) Κακουλίδου, Θεώνη; Kakoulidou, Theoni; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of International and European Economic Studies; Κωνσταντίνου, Παναγιώτης; Κατσίμη, Μαργαρίτα; Καλυβίτης, Σαράντης; Καμμάς, Παντελής; Μπίλιας, Ιωάννης; Χριστόπουλος, Δημήτριος; Μούτος, Θωμάς
Η διδακτορική διατριβή εξετάζει τις επιπτώσεις που είχαν οι μεταρρυθμίσεις στο θεσμικό πλαίσιο του κατώτατου μισθού που εισήχθησαν σύμφωνα με το Δεύτερο Πρόγραμμα Οικονομικής Προσαρμογής. Η διατριβή περιλαμβάνει τρία εμπειρικά κείμενα καθώς και ένα εισαγωγικό κεφάλαιο στο οποίο αναφέρονται οι κύριες μεταρρυθμίσεις που έγιναν βάσει των τριών Προγραμμάτων Οικονομικής Προσαρμογής. Η θεματολογία και των τριών κειμένων εμπίπτει στον τομέα των οικονομικών της εργασίας. Σε κάθε κείμενο, εξετάζει και διαφορετική μεταρρύθμιση με τη χρήση οικονομετρικών μοντέλων, ώστε να εξετασθούν οι επιπτώσεις που είχαν στην απασχόληση, τη συμμετοχή στην αγορά εργασίας και τις εξαγωγές. Η κύρια οικονομετρική μέθοδος που εφαρμόζεται είναι οι διαφορές των διαφορών.
Issues of monetary policy making in a monetary union
(Athens University of Economics and Business, 10-2009) Skotida, Ifigeneia; Brissimis, Sophocles; Kalyvitis, Sarantis
Doctoral thesis - Athens University of Economics and Business. Department of International and European Economic Studies
Microsimulation for the evaluation of public policy: a tax-benefit model for the Greek economy
(2009) Flevotomou, Maria; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of International and European Economic Studies; Matsaganis, Manos
This doctoral thesis develops a tax-benefit model, i.e. a tool for the evaluation of public policy in Greece through microsimulation. Public policy affects incomes, consumption and consequently individual welfare through many routes. Not surprisingly, a large body of economic research has been dedicated to developing methods analyzing its effects. Contributions to the literature fall under two broad strands. Generally speaking, the first strand builds upon the representative agent approach, and is grounded upon the assumption that one may abstract from individual characteristics and preferences and focus on some “average type” to study the impact of policy change. The unit of analysis could therefore well be the average taxpayer, the average pensioner, the typical family etc. Further simplifying assumptions are necessarily made under this approach as such models typically cannot encompass the full details and complex interactions of various policies. For example, the tax system is usually represented in terms of an average tax rate summarizing the overall effect of its various components such as tax allowances, the tax schedule or tax credits. The other, and more recent strand, builds upon the microsimulation approach, which makes use of richer data – at the individual level -on the circumstances of a sample of households that is representative of the population. The application of the microsimulation approach in the economic analysis of public policy makes use of tax-benefit models. Models of this sort study the impact on net incomes of the current or alternative tax-benefit systems by calculating benefit entitlements and tax liabilities for each individual contained in a micro dataset. The representativeness of the sample then ensures that aggregate effects may well be approximated by grossing up - via appropriate weighting techniques - the effects of each individual unit. Our research follows the latter approach aiming to develop a tax-benefit odel for the Greek economy. In particular, we extend and improve upon the basic tax-benefit model currently existing for Greece, EUROMOD, a cross-country comparative model simulating tax and transfer policies in 19 member states of the European Union. The model was designed with a view to provide a consistent comparative framework within which to study the effect of various public policy instruments upon measures of personal income and householdwelfare (Sutherland, 2000)1. The contribution of the current thesis may be framed along two broad dimensions. On a first level, as already mentioned, EUROMOD is an integrated European model. As such, its development primarily focused upon ensuring comparability across countries throughout the model construction process. Inevitably, this necessitated a detachment from a detailed representation of tax benefit systems at the national level. Accordingly, the first direction in which we improve upon the model entails its refinement to better respond to the particular requirements and characteristics of the Greek tax benefit system. On a second, and more innovative, level we extend the model’s scope by incorporating in its structure mechanisms that account for circumstances facing the real– world policy maker: tax evasion, benefit non take up as well as behavioural responses to announced policy measures. In the remaining part of this introductory chapter, we place the thesis in the context of the relatively recent but rapidly evolving literature on microsimulation in economics. The review offers a historical account of developments, highlighting the strengths but also calling attention to the likely pitfalls of specific microsimulation approaches. This sets a reference framework, in which we place our contribution. The introduction closes with a detailed layout of the core chapters of this thesis (Chapters II-VI). In the final chapter (Chapter VII) we discuss our main findings and conclusions. The seminal paper on socio-economic microsimulation modelling dates back to the late 1950s. Orcutt (1957), driven by the aspiration to improve the predictive usefulness of economic models in analyzing the effects of public policy, envisaged a radical departure from standard macro-econometric methods applied at that time. As Wolfson (2000) notes, Orcutt’s vision was grounded upon the empirical observation that “realistic micro-level circumstances and behavioural patterns are sufficiently multivariate and non-linear that they can never, as a matter of mathematical logic, be represented by well-formed tractable aggregate mathematical relationships”. Along these lines, Orcutt’s counter- proposal was a new type of model comprising of elemental units of analysis, such as individuals, families or firms.Information at the unit level would be retrieved from samples representing real populations and would be fed into the model, which would then apply appropriate operating characteristics to produce output. Orcutt further viewed his novel method as a vehicle for broadening the range of socio-economic phenomena that can be studied. In his words, “[then]current models of our socio-economic system have an unduly narrow reach in that they have little to say about such fundamental things as…distributions of individuals, households or firms in single or multivariate classifications” (Orcutt (1957) , page 116). Early developments in the field of microsimulation modelling took place in the 1960sand consisted mainly of the construction of personal income tax models in a number of countries including the US, Sweden, Canada and Norway (see Citro and Hanushek, 1991 andOECD, 1988 for a historical review). The next decade witnessed the expansion of this activity in many European countries, such as the United Kingdom, Austria, Finland, France,Italy and the Netherlands. It was not, however, until the 1980’s that research fully capitalized upon Orcutt’s vision. This was due to the growing availability of rich multivariate microdatasets paralleled by technological advances increasing the power of modern computing.Over the past two decades, progress has been fast and ongoing in the field, as microsimulation has proved to be a very flexible and versatile tool. Important methodological advances have addressed data and modelling issues, while models themselves have be enextended along temporal, geographical and behavioural dimensions.While the role of data availability and technological advances should not be underestimated, the real stimulus for the rapid progress achieved in the field was in fact what Orcutt had precisely expected from the microsimulation approach: predictive usefulness. Public policies are usually designed with a specific purpose in mind (O’Hare and Gupta, 2000). For example, the primary goal of a policy increasing the progressiveness of the tax system may be to reduce income inequality. Income transfer policies may be specifically designed so as to target those in greatest need and ultimately reduce poverty. The effectiveness of public policy in meeting such goals can only be evaluated through the study of the distribution of the induced changes across different segments of the population. This is exactly the “value added” of the microsimulation approach, which has become an increasingly powerful instrument extensively used by governmental institutions for the evaluation of public policy. The qualities of the microsimulation approach flow from its two distinguishing features. First, by operating at the individual level, it takes into account diverse circumstances and characteristics of the population of interest (Citro and Hanushek, 1991). This allows the effects of public policy to be studied along the income distribution and across its various population segments. For example, in evaluating a specific policy measure a microsimulation model may quantify effects upon the incomes of a particular income quintile (e.g. the top 20% of the income distribution) or of a particular socio-economic group (e.g. families with children, employees, etc). It may consequently also provide estimates upon effects on the redistribution of income or on poverty measures. On a related note, it offers users the capacity to identify winners and losers of a proposed reform, thus providing a very useful first approximation of the welfare effects, as well as fiscal and political feasibility, of policy proposals on the political agenda. The second distinguishing feature of microsimulation models is their flexibility. Several desirable properties emerge as a result. On a first level, as already implied in the above discussion, microsimulation models may be used to examine, apart from current, alternative public policy scenarios. Further, alternative scenarios may be specified through changes that involve complicated interactions among more than one government program (Citro and Hanushek, 1991). The analysis of hypothetical reforms stretches from an evaluation of distributional effects, as outlined earlier, to a quantification of their fiscal implications. In other words, microsimulation models enable the accurate evaluation of the aggregate cost or benefit of a reform (Spadaro, 2007). Such aggregate estimates are provided by appropriately weighting and adding up individual changes in net incomes arising from an application of alternative, as opposed to current, rules in a country’s tax and benefit system (Sutherland, 1991). However, it is the numerous directions in which microsimulation modelling has developed over the past years that provide the most obvious and convincing evidence of the flexibility ingrained in this micro-analytic approach. A basic taxonomy of microsimulation models may provide a simple illustration at this point. Generally speaking, we may classify microsimulation models under two broad categories: static and dynamic. Static models typically impute income tax or other liabilities and the receipt of social security and other benefits by applying the rules for eligibility or liability to each of the micro units (Harding, 1993). In replicating current or hypothetical institutional frameworks, static models assume away behavioural responses on the part of micro agents. Their key purpose has hence traditionally been to show the “morning after” impact of a policy change. Given the short- or medium-term time frame under which public policy operates, static models (though early stage achievements in the microsimulation field) have been “a gigantic success story in changing the nature of the political debate” (Caldwell, 1997). On the other hand, theirdisregard of behavioural reactions makes them oblivious to efficiency concerns, their static approach precludes the study of longer-term redistribution effects, while the ex ante nature of the analysis is a potential source of inaccuracy if the rules governing a country’s tax benefit system are not fully adhered to ex post. However, the flexibility embedded in the microsimulation approach has enabled the development of static models along many dimensions, one of which is their extension to include dynamic elements. In fact, the term “dynamic” is often used to describe two different aspects: (i) how behavioural responses are treated in the model, and (ii) how micro data is “aged” to future years2. In the first case, static models have been extended to simulate changes in behaviour induced by a specific policy shock – for example, how a change in the tax system may affect labour supply decisions or consumption patterns. Typically, behavioural parameters are externally estimated and then incorporated into the model. Strictly speaking, however, such models may not be fully dynamic for two reasons. On the one hand, it is practically impossible to model all changes in behaviour induced by a policy reform. On the other hand, they do not consider time issues. This latter aspect is captured by microsimulation models “ageing” individuals in the original micro dataset by simulating major life events (such as death, marriage, divorce, fertility etc) as well as intertemporal behavioural decisions (such as consumption, savings, retirement etc). Such models recalculate the characteristics of each individual year-by-year, stretching to a long-term horizon. Given the increasing concern about the social and economic impact of population ageing, the historical and longitudinal nature of these models has rendered them an invaluable tool in public policy analysis. On the downside, they impose prohibitive – at least, relative to their static counterparts – computing, data and resource requirements. Other directions which microsimulation modelling is taking include the development of cross-country models, a prime example of which is EUROMOD, or the development of models simulating the behaviour of business firms, rather than individuals or households. Another very promising route for microsimulation research is its integration with macroeconomic analysis. A policy change, or the behavioural responses it initiates, may have an effect on the macroeconomy (Sutherland, 1991). For example, a tax reform favouring low paid workers may lower their bargaining power in the next round of wage negotiations and consequently their wages. Further, if the tax reform creates inflationary pressures, the government may increase interest rates. Hence, far from the initial effect of the increase in net incomes of low paid workers, the reform may ultimately lead to lower wages or to lower real living standards if it is inflationary, or even to a change in the nominal incomes of savers and borrowers if interest rates are changed by the government. A detailed account of the various microsimulation models internationally developed over the past decades would be superfluous for the purposes of this thesis. Instead, through the above discussion, we aimed to highlight major developments in microsimulation research with a view to relate them to existing tax-benefit models treating the Greek economy, and ultimately underline the “gaps” we aim to bridge. The microsimulation approach was first used to study the effects of public policy in Greece in the early 1990s. The earliest model (Papapanagos, 1994) was a static one simulating the features of the personal income tax and social security system in Greece. The model has an exclusive focus upon the effects of income taxation, calculating allowances, income deductions, taxable income, tax schedule liability, tax credits and the final taxschedule liability of taxpayers and households in the micro dataset. Social transfers are not examined, neither is indirect taxation. The Greek indirect taxation system is in fact simulated by another microsimulation model (Kaplanoglou, 2000). This is another static model, which is nonetheless endowed with the flexibility to incorporate behavioural responses via assumptions regarding own-price elasticities of consumer goods. As the degree of commodity disaggregation is prohibitively high to allow detailed elasticity estimates, results are contained within a confidence interval with limits that correspond to two extremes of behavioural response: no change in purchased quantities (zero own price elasticities) and no change in expenditure (own-price elasticity of -1). The model is uniquely orientated towards the evaluation of indirect tax policies, and thus does not capture other features of the Greek tax-benefit system. The most complete to date tax-benefit model for the Greek economy is contained as a component of the cross-country comparative model earlier referred to, EUROMOD. EUROMOD is a static microsimulation model. Its component treating the Greek economysimulates rules governing policy on social benefits, social insurance contributions and direct taxation as they operated in 1998, 2001 and 2003. As already stated, EUROMOD acts as a basis for the tax-benefit model developed in the context of the present thesis. Hence, in what follows we provide a selective account of its various attributes and relate them to the improvements and extensions we aim to achieve through its development. On a first level, EUROMOD draws on European Community Household Panel (ECHP) 1996 data, containing information on incomes earned in 1995. This micro sample has been “statically aged”, though not fully, in order to represent more accurately certain population characteristics as they pertained in the simulated years (i.e. 1998, 2001, and 2003). In particular, the static ageing technique applied – uprating – adjusted monetary values for differential income growth and inflation. Other relevant characteristics of the population –mainly socio-demographic in nature – which may undergo dramatic change in a short space of time have been left unadjusted. In other words, weights attached to individuals in the dataset have not been changed to reflect economic and social change, such as for example an increase in unemployment, or in owner occupation or in the incidence of single parenthood. Hence, not all relevant aspects of structural change have been modelled. But even in the unlikely event that this was ever possible, as Sutherland (1991) notes “it should be remembered that grossing-up and updating procedures are not good substitutes for high quality, recent data. The most strongly worded piece of advice to the government was that they should begin collecting new data for a future model as soon as possible”. This is an important driving force behind our intent to improve upon the Greek component of EUROMOD via the incorporation of a more recent data source.Another major motivation for replacing the data source currently used pertains to the type of information contained in the ECHP. As already mentioned, the model construction process of EUROMOD has concentrated upon finding commonality across countries. One aspect of this focus is the model’s engagement in the construction of a database providing comparable microsimulation results across 19 countries. National differences in data collection practice were suppressed to the extent possible or avoided altogether via the use of data sources designed by a common agency. ECHP, designed by Eurostat, is a case in point and is in fact the base dataset for four countries other than Greece (Austria, Denmark, Portugal and Spain). However, this gain in comparability goes hand-in-hand with a loss in the richness of information available at the national level. This may be a severe shortcoming to the extent that the loss in detail inhibits a close enough representation of a specific country’s tax and benefit system. In the case of Greece, the ECHP was indeed restrictive in several aspects and additionally, as discussed above, considerably out of date for a good enough representation of the Greek tax-benefit system. In Chapter II, we summarize our efforts to improve the model by making use of a new, more up-to-date data source which also enables the fine-tuning of simulations to better respond to the particularities and characteristics of the Greek tax benefit system. On a second level, taking for granted detailed data – corrected for as many defects as possible – EUROMOD may still be liable to shortcomings strictly related to the ex ante nature of static microsimulation analysis. Hence, even if the policies simulated represent the current tax-benefit system satisfactorily, the results may not correspond to what is observed ex post. One reason for this is that static models do not account for second order effects induced by behavioural responses to various policies. This is an issue we return to shortly. Another source of inaccuracy could be that rules delineating the tax-benefit system do not adequately describe what happens in fact. This may well be the case if individuals break the rules. For example, EUROMOD is built under the implicit assumption that taxpayers declare all their income to the tax authorities. In reality, however, taxpayers may attempt to evade taxes by withholding information from the tax authorities. Another case in point is that EUROMOD rationally presumes that individuals take up their entitlement to social transfers. However, there are reasons – such as lack of information, fear of social stigma etc – for which people may not in practice claim benefits to which they are entitled. If such deviations from rules are operative, they may have a significant impact upon the validity of the model’s results. On the one hand, aggregate estimates of tax revenue or benefit expenditure will be biased. On the other hand, effects on the incomes of households or individuals will be concealed, thus introducing a bias in the distributional analysis. The above considerations motivated the extension of EUROMOD to include components that explicitly address the phenomena of tax evasion and benefit non take up in Greece. These issues are treated in Chapters III and IV respectively. Finally, the purely static nature of EUROMOD makes it appropriate for the study of the immediate impact of a policy change, before any of the individuals within the model change their behaviour in response to the policy shock. The eventual, however, impact of a policy reform will most probably be different as, in practice, most reforms are not marginal and may even be specifically designed to induce changes in agent behaviour. For example, a shift in the tax regime entailing a lower marginal tax rate increases – ceteris paribus – households’ disposable incomes. This is the first-order effect, typically studied by static microsimulation models. However, income effects as well as changes in the after tax price of labour may also modify labour supply decisions, thus inducing a second order effect upon households’ disposable incomes. Under these circumstances, a microsimulation model may evaluate the eventual efficiency and redistribution performance of public policy only if it can reproduce agents’ behaviour. In Chapter V, we address – at least to some extent – the above concerns by allowing a single aspect of agents’ behaviour, namely labour supply decisions, to vary in response to policy change. The flexibility of EUROMOD enables us to incorporate the behavioural parameters developed externally into the fiscal and distributional analysis performed by the model. On the whole, our research effort has aimed to capitalise upon a valuable potential embedded in a static microsimulation model of the Greek economy. On this basis, and along the dimensions discussed earlier, we developed a tax benefit model which may better inform the evaluation of public policy in Greece. In Chapter VI, we demonstrate the model’s improved potential via an analysis of the fiscal and distributional implications of five different reforms in the Greek tax-benefit system. In the remainder of this chapter, we discuss in some more detail the content of each of the five core chapters of this thesis.
Poverty dynamics in the European Union : 1994-2000
(Athens University of Economics and Business, 2009) Andriopoulou, Eirini; Tsakloglou, Panagiotis
Doctoral thesis - Athens University of Economics and Business. Department of International and European Economic Studies
Public debt consolidation and structural reforms in DGE models
(08-01-2020) Σαρρή, Γαρυφαλιά; Sarri, Garyfalia; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of International and European Economic Studies; Καλυβίτης, Σαράντης; Φιλιππόπουλος, Απόστολος; Βασιλάτος, Ευάγγελος; Κωνσταντίνου, Παναγιώτης; Οικονομίδου, Χαρίκλεια; Παναγιωτίδης, Θεόδωρος; Οικονομίδης, Γεώργιος
Το αντικείμενο της παρούσας διατριβής είναι να μελετήσει την επίδραση των πολιτικών αποκλιμάκωσης του λόγου δημοσίου χρέους ως προς το ΑΕΠ, ιδιαίτερα στο προϊόν της οικονομίας και στα καθαρά διαθέσιμα εισοδήματα των παραγόντων της οικονομίας. Για αυτό το σκοπό, αναπτύχθηκε ένα Δυναμικό Μοντέλο Γενικής Ισορροπίας με ετερογενείς παράγοντες (καπιταλιστές, ιδιωτικοί υπάλληλοι, δημόσιοι υπάλληλοι). Αρχικά, η αποκλιμάκωση του λόγου δημοσίου χρέους ως προς το ΑΕΠ επιτεύχθηκε μέσω της προσαρμογής ενός ή δύο εργαλείων πολιτικής (φόροι σε κατανάλωση, εργασία, κεφάλαιο, δημόσιες επενδύσεις, δημόσιες προμήθειες, μισθοδοσία δημόσιων υπαλλήλων, κοινωνικές μεταβιβάσεις). Έπειτα, η αποκλιμάκωση του λόγου δημοσίου χρέους ως προς το ΑΕΠ συνοδεύτηκε από διαρθρωτικές μεταρρυθμίσεις (δημόσια χρηματοδότηση αντί δημόσιας παραγωγής μη αμιγών δημόσιων αγαθών, ιδιωτικοποίηση της παραγωγής μη αμιγών δημόσιων αγαθών). Το μοντέλο επιλύθηκε αριθμητικά χρησιμοποιώντας τιμές από την Ευρωζώνη για τις εξωγενείς μεταβλητές, κατά την περίοδο 2005-2015. Ως προς την αποκλιμάκωση του λόγου δημοσίου χρέους ως προς το ΑΕΠ, ο στόχος που τέθηκε ήταν 60%, όπως και στη Συνθήκη του Μάαστριχτ. Στη μακροχρόνια περίοδο, η μείωση του λόγου δημοσίου χρέους ως προς το ΑΕΠ αποδεσμεύει πόρους, επιτρέποντας τη μείωση/αύξηση των φορολογικών συντελεστών/δημοσίων δαπανών. Αυτό έχει θετικά αποτελέσματα μακροχρόνια τόσο στο προϊόν της οικονομίας, όσο και στο κατά κεφαλήν καθαρό διαθέσιμο εισόδημα των παραγόντων της οικονομίας. Όταν η μείωση του λόγου δημοσίου χρέους ως προς το ΑΕΠ συνοδεύτηκε από διαρθρωτικές μεταρρυθμίσεις, τα αρνητικά αποτελέσματα που παρατηρήθηκαν στη βραχυχρόνια και ειδικά την πολύ βραχυχρόνια περίοδο εξομαλύνθηκαν. Ο λόγος ήταν ότι κατά τη μετάβαση στη νέα μακροχρόνια ισορροπία, η μείωση του λόγου δημοσίου χρέους ως προς το ΑΕΠ συνεπάγεται αύξηση/μείωση των φορολογικών συντελεστών/δημοσίων δαπανών. Ωστόσο, η μείωση του κόστους παραγωγής των μη αμιγών δημόσιων αγαθών αποτρέπει την παραπάνω αύξηση/μείωση των φορολογικών συντελεστών/δημοσίων δαπανών στη βραχυχρόνια περίοδο. Συνολικά, το υψηλότερο κατά κεφαλήν προϊόν και καθαρό διαθέσιμο εισόδημα παρατηρήθηκε όταν η αποκλιμάκωση του λόγου δημοσίου χρέους ως προς το ΑΕΠ συνοδεύτηκε από ιδιωτικοποίηση της παραγωγή του μη αμιγούς δημοσίου αγαθού και ειδικότερα όταν ο φορολογικός συντελεστής στο κεφάλαιο ήταν το εργαλείο πολιτικής που προσαρμόστηκε στην αλλαγή πολιτικής.
Working time reduction and employment
(Athens University of Economics and Business, 12-2008) Galinou, Argyro; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of International European Economic Studies; Moutos, Thomas
Doctoral thesis - Athens University of Economics and Business
Δημοσιονομική πολιτική, κίνητρα και μακροοικονομία
Αγγελόπουλος, Κωνσταντίνος Β.; Οικονομικό Πανεπιστήμιο Αθηνών, Τμήμα Διεθνών και Ευρωπαϊκών Οικονομικών Σπουδών; Φιλιππόπουλος, Απόστολος
Η διατριβή οργανώνεται ως εξής. Το μέρος Α περιλαμβάνει τρία εμπειρικά κεφάλαια, Ι, ΙΙ και ΙΙΙ. Το κεφάλαιο Ι ερευνά τους εμπειρικούς καθοριστικούς παράγοντες τριών βασικών μεταβλητών: δημοσιονομικό μέγεθος, ιδιωτικά κίνητρα και οικονομική ανάπτυξη. Το ίδιο κεφάλαιο παρουσιάζει τα βασικά στοιχεία που χρησιμοποιούνται στη διατριβή, καθώς επίσης και τα κύρια συμπεράσματα της σχετικής εμπειρικής βιβλιογραφίας. Ακόμη, παραδίδουμε εμπειρικά αποτελέσματα για μια ομάδα 108 χωρών κατά τη διάρκεια του χρονικού διαστήματος 1980-2000. Αυτό μπορεί να δώσει στον αναγνώστη μια γενική εισαγωγή στον ερευνητικό τομέα και επίσης μια χρήσιμη συγκριτική βάση για να συγκρίνει τα αποτελέσματα στα οποία καταλήγουν τα ακόλουθα κεφάλαια. Τα κεφαλαία ΙΙ και ΙΙΙ μελετούν τη δυνατότητα να υπάρχουν καμπύλες Laffer ανάμεσα στη σχέση του κυβερνητικού μεγέθους από τη μια πλευρά, και της οικονομικής ανάπτυξης και των ιδιωτικών κινήτρων από την άλλη. Αυτό γίνεται για μια ομάδα 23 χωρών του ΟΟΣΑ κατά τη διάρκεια του 1980-2000 και για μια ομάδα 52 βιομηχανικών και αναπτυσσόμενων χωρών για την περίοδο 1995-2000. Όπως θα δούμε, τα στοιχεία ανιχνεύουν τέτοιες καμπύλες Laffer. Επιπλέον, η ανάλυση σε αυτά τα δύο κεφάλαια δίνει ενδιαφέροντα αποτελέσματα όσον αφορά την ταξινόμηση των χωρών σε δύο ομάδες: εκείνες όπου η δημοσιονομική πολιτική ασκεί θετική επίδραση στην οικονομία και εκείνες όπου το μέγεθος του δημόσιου τομέα έχει αυξηθεί πάρα πολύ ώστε οι αποτυχίες πολιτικής να γίνονται επικρατούσες. Η κύρια συμβολή είναι να δειχτεί ότι είναι η κυβερνητική αποδοτικότητα/αποτελεσματικότητα αυτή που διαμορφώνει τη σχέσημεταξύ του μεγέθους και των εκβάσεων. Το Μέρος Β (τα κεφάλαια IV και V) προσθέτουν τη θεωρία. Το κεφάλαιο IV κατασκευάζει ένα ειδάλλως τυποποιημένο γενικό πρότυπο ισορροπίας της οικονομικής ανάπτυξης και της βέλτιστα επιλεγμένης δημοσιονομικής πολιτικής, στις οποίες τα άτομα ανταγωνίζονται το ένα με το άλλο για πρόσθετες δημοσιονομικές μεταβιβάσεις και δύο πολιτικά κόμματα ανταγωνίζονται το ένα με το άλλο για την παραμονή στην εξουσία. Η κύρια πρόβλεψη είναι ότι οι σχετικά μεγάλοι δημόσιοι τομείς στις προεκλογικές περιόδους διαστρεβλώνουν τα κίνητρα με την ώθηση των ατόμων μακριά από την παραγωγική εργασία για rent seeking, και στη συνέχεια, τα διαστρεβλωμένα κίνητρα βλάπτουν την ανάπτυξη. Εξετάζουμε αυτήν την πρόβλεψη με τη χρησιμοποίηση ενός συνόλου στοιχείων μιας ομάδας 25 χωρών του ΟΟΣΑ κατά τη διάρκεια της περιόδου 1982-1996, καθώς επίσης και μιας ομάδας 108 βιομηχανικών και αναπτυσσόμενων χωρών κατά τη διάρκεια της δεκαετίας 1990-2000 και βρίσκουμε ότι αυτή επιβεβαιώνεται. Στο κεφάλαιο ΙV, μια ασυντόνιστη προσπάθεια για πρόσθετες δημοσιονομικές εύνοιες μέσω του κρατικού προϋπολογισμού ενσωματώνεται σε ένα δυναμικό πιθανολογικό γενικό πρότυπο ισορροπίας (DSGE). Αυτό απεικονίζει τη δημοφιλή πεποίθηση ότι οι ομάδες συμφερόντων ανταγωνίζονται για τις προνομιούχες μεταβιβάσεις και τη αποφυγή φόρων εις βάρος του ενδιαφέροντος του ευρέος κοινού, και έτσι η συνολική οικονομία λιμνάζει. Το πρότυπο είναι διαμετρημένο (calibrated) στην ευρωζώνη κατά τη διάρκεια της περιόδου 1980-2003. Τα αποτελέσματά μας δείχνουν ότι η επιδίωξη μισθώματος συμβάλλει στην εξήγηση της ευρωπαϊκής εμπειρίας στη μακροοικονομική απόδοση και τους επιχειρηματικούς κύκλους. Λαμβάνουμε επίσης ποσοτικά στοιχεία για το μέρος των συλλεχθέντων φορολογικών εσόδων που αρπάζονται από τους αναζητητές μισθώματος (rent seekers) για όλες τις χώρες μέλη της ΟΝΕ. Κάθε κεφάλαιο κατωτέρω θα παράσχει μια εισαγωγή στο ιδιαίτερο ζήτημα που αντιμετωπίζει, μαζί με μια σύντομη αναθεώρηση της σχετικής βιβλιογραφίας. Τα συμπεράσματα και οι προτάσεις πολιτικής συζητούνται σε κάθε κεφάλαιο χωριστά. Εντούτοις, υπάρχει επίσης ένα τελευταίο σύντομο κεφάλαιο με μερικά γενικά συμπεράσματα και προτάσεις πολιτικής.
Δοκίμια για το ρόλο του ανθρωπίνου κεφαλαίου και της δημοσιονομικής πολιτικής στην οικονομική μεγέθυνση
Μπένος, Νίκος; Οικονομικό Πανεπιστήμιο Αθηνών, Τμήμα Διεθνών και Ευρωπαϊκών Οικονομικών Σπουδών; Φιλιππόπουλος, Απόστολος
Αυτή η διατριβή περικλείει τρία κομμάτια της βιβλιογραφίας στα μακροικοκονομικά. Το πρώτο εξετάζει το ρόλο του ανθρωπίνου κεφαλαίου ως κινητήριας δύναμης της μεγέθυνσης. Το δεύτερο σκέλος της βιβλιογραφίας αφορά στις ατέλειες της αγοράς concerns (market imperfections), που δίνουν το σκεπτικό για παρέμβαση της πολιτικής, και ατέλειες της διαδικασίας άσκησης οικονομικής πολιτικής. Τέλος, το τρίτο μέρος της βιβλιογραφίας, που σχετίζεται με τη διατριβή εξετάζει τη σχέση δημοσιονομικής πολιτικής και οικονομικής μεγέθυνσης.
Ευρωπαϊκές χρηματοπιστωτικές αγορές και εποπτικό πλαίσιο υπό το πρίσμα της πολιτικής οικονομίας
Τριαντόπουλος, Χρήστος; Οικονομικό Πανεπιστήμιο Αθηνών, Τμήμα Διεθνών και Ευρωπαϊκών Οικονομικών Σπουδών; Χριστοδουλάκης, Νίκος; Παγκράτης, Σπυρίδων; Παγουλάτος, Γεώργιος
Στην παρούσα διδακτορική διατριβή αναπτύσσεται μία προσέγγιση συγκριτικής ανάλυσης των ευρωπαϊκών συστημάτων καπιταλιστικής οργάνωσης υπό τα δεδομένα της φάσης χρηματοπιστωτικής υπερβολής της καπιταλιστικής οικονομίας. Φάση, κατά την οποία, πριν από το ξέσπασμα της κρίσης του 2007/2008 η χρέωση των δρώντων ήταν υπερδιπλάσια του παραγόμενου προϊόντος και το μέγεθος του χρηματοπιστωτικού συστήματος ήταν πενταπλάσιο της πραγματικής οικονομίας. Πρόκειται για την προσέγγιση των μοντέλων χρηματοπιστωτικής οργάνωσης, η οποία συνιστά την επέκταση της προσέγγισης των μοντέλων καπιταλιστικής οργάνωσης και δη της εμπλουτισμένης με τη «μία φάση πριν» εκδοχή της. Στον πυρήνα της, ως δομικός δρών κάθε μοντέλου, εντοπίζεται το χρηματοπιστωτικό ίδρυμα ως εκφραστής της ζωτικής για την καπιταλιστική οικονομία χρηματοπιστωτικής δραστηριότητας. Συγκεκριμένα, το χρηματοπιστωτικό ίδρυμα δρα σε ένα περιβάλλον στρατηγικής διάδρασης με τους άλλους δομικούς δρώντες και θεσμούς της καπιταλιστικής οικονομίας, με τους οποίους επιτυγχάνεται συγκεκριμένης φύσης συντονισμός που συνεισφέρει στην αποτελεσματικότητα της δραστηριότητας των δρώντων του συγκεκριμένου μοντέλου. Οι διαδράσεις, λοιπόν, που διαμορφώνονται μεταξύ των δρώντων σε υποπεδία της διαμεσολαβητικής δραστηριότητας, αλλά και στο πλαίσιο ενός πλέγματος «θεσμικών συμπληρωματικοτήτων», προσδιορίζουν τη φύση του συντονισμού που επιτυγχάνεται, προσδίδοντας «χαρακτήρα» στο μοντέλο χρηματοπιστωτικής οργάνωσης ανάλογα με τη φύση του συντονισμού. Τα αποτελέσματα της εμπειρικής διερεύνησης καταδεικνύουν την ανθεκτικότητα της φύσης του συντονισμού, καθώς παρατηρείται σε αρκετές περιπτώσεις μία ενδιαφέρουσα συνέχεια μεταξύ μοντέλων καπιταλιστικής οργάνωσης και μοντέλων χρηματοπιστωτικής οργάνωσης, υπογραμμίζοντας ότι, παρά την εξέλιξη -και μεταβολή- της φύσης της καπιταλιστικής οικονομίας, η φύση του συντονισμού διατηρεί τα δομικά χαρακτηριστικά της. Έτσι, εντοπίζονται ο συντονισμός με όρους δυνάμεων της αγοράς στα αγορακεντρικά συστήματα, ο συντονισμός με όρους στρατηγικής συνεργασίας των δρώντων της αγοράς στα τραπεζοκεντρικά συστήματα και ο συντονισμός με όρους παρέμβασης του κράτους στην αγορά στα κρατικοκεντρικά συστήματα. Η ανθεκτικότητα της φύσης του συντονισμού προκύπτει -σε σημαντικό βαθμό- και από την επέκταση της προσέγγισης των μοντέλων χρηματοπιστωτικής οργάνωσης στο πεδίο της εποπτείας της χρηματοπιστωτικής δραστηριότητας, όπως προκύπτει από την οπτική των εκδοχών εποπτείας της χρηματοπιστωτικής οργάνωσης. Πρόκειται, ειδικότερα, για τα παραδοσιακά εποπτικά πλαίσια που εντοπίζονται στα κρατικοκεντρικά συστήματα, τα μερικώς εξελιγμένα εποπτικά πλαίσια που χαρακτηρίζουν, κυρίως, τα τραπεζοκεντρικά συστήματα και τα εξελιγμένα εποπτικά πλαίσια των αγορακεντρικών συστημάτων. Αυτή, λοιπόν, η ανθεκτικότητα της φυσιογνωμίας του συντονισμού, έστω και με αποκλίσεις, μέσα σε ένα περιβάλλον καπιταλιστικής εξέλιξης, συνιστά σημαντική ένδειξη της δυσκολίας αλλαγής της φύσης μιας πολιτικής οικονομίας και δη των καταβολών της, ενώ οι τύποι του συντονισμού και οι σχετικές τάσεις αποτυπώνουν τη χρόνια «διαμάχη» για τον «έλεγχο» της οικονομικής δραστηριότητας ανάμεσα σε κράτος και αγορά, με τη στρατηγική συνεργασία των δρώντων να βρίσκεται στο μεσαίο χώρο αυτού του ιδιότυπου «ανταγωνισμού».
Η συμβολή του Διεθνούς Νομισματικού Ταμείου στην οικονομική εξυγίανση των κρατών-μελών της Ε.Ε α. Ουγγαρίαβ. Κύπρος
Ξήρα, Μαρία; Οικονομικό Πανεπιστήμιο Αθηνών , Τμήμα Διεθνών και Ευρωπαϊκών Οικονομικών Σπουδών; Μπλαβούκος, Σπυρίδων
Μετά το πέρας του Β’ Παγκοσμίου Πολέμου, προέκυψε η ανάγκη εμφάνισης διεθνών οργανισμών των οποίων οι δραστηριότητες ήταν εξ ολοκλήρου ή σε ένα σημαντικό βαθμό αφιερωμένες σε οικονομικά ζητήματα.Σε αυτούς τους οργανισμούς περιλαμβάνονται τα Ηνωμένα Έθνη και οι αρχικές περιφερειακές οικονομικές επιτροπές του, ιδίως εκείνων για την Ευρώπη (Ευρωπαική Οικονομική Κοινότητα) και για τη Λατινική Αμερική (Eυρωπαική Επιτροπή για την Λατινική Αμερική), το Διεθνές Νομισματικό Ταμείο (Δ.Ν.Τ) και η Παγκόσμια Τράπεζα, η Γενική Συμφωνία Δασμών και Εμπορίου (GATT, δεν είναι τεχνικά ένας διεθνής οργανισμός, αλλά εκτελεί ανάλογα καθήκοντα και λειτουργεί σε συγκρίσιμες γραμμές), η Διεθνής Οργάνωση Εργασίας (ΔΟΕ, ο μόνος συνεχιστής από την περίοδο του μεσοπολέμου), και ο Οργανισμός Τροφίμων και Γεωργίας, για να αναφέρουμε μόνο τους πιο σημαντικούς οργανισμούς της περιόδου αυτής. Άλλοι ακολούθησαν, όπως ο Οργανισμός Οικονομικής Συνεργασίας και Ανάπτυξης (ΟΟΣΑ) και της Διάσκεψης των Ηνωμένων Εθνών για το Εμπόριο και την Ανάπτυξη (UNCTAD) - ο κατάλογος των οργανώσεων που δικαιούνται να στείλουν παρατηρητές στις ετήσιες συνεδριάσεις του ΔΝΤ και της Παγκόσμιας Τράπεζας σταθμίζεται στους εξήντα πέντε.

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