Μεταπτυχιακές Εργασίες

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Current account determinants between the Eurozone and the United States
(03/16/2021) Bertsatos, Gerasimos; Μπερτσάτος, Γεράσιμος; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics; Tzavalis, Elias; Vassilatos, Vangelis; Alogoskoufis, Georgios
The initial aim of this dissertation is to investigate the short- and long-term determinants of the current account balance through a sample of the nineteen Eurozone member states with the United States as a trading partner. Particularly, we would like to test hypotheses about the competitiveness between the Eurozone and the United States, the Ricardian equivalence versus the Keynesian view for the relation between the fiscal deficit and the current account deficit (the twin deficit hypothesis), the exchange rate volatility and examine the significance of other related factors which determine the current account balance. Additionally, we utilized the modern econometric techniques for panel data analysis, such as panel ARDL - the PMG estimator and panel unit root tests-, in order to examine how the chosen determinants, affect the current account balance. Quarterly data was used in a sample of the nineteen Eurozone member states with the United States as a trading partner over the period of 2008 until 2018. Through the empirical investigation, many of our hypotheses were confirmed i.e., we found that the current account balance in the long-run displays a positive association with the real exchange rate, the real interest rate, GDP per capita, and the exchange rate volatility, but on the other hand exhibits a negative association with the fiscal balance. At last, in the short-run, we discover that only the real exchange rate is a valid instrument for exercising economic policy.
Debt crises
(05/17/2021) Androulakis, Emmanouil; Ανδρουλάκης, Εμμανουήλ; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics; Philippopoulos, Apostolis; Sakellaris, Plutarchos; Alogoskoufis, Georgios
Despite their differences, the defaults of modern Greece were following the same path: The common war conflicts were demanding huge war expenses financed via external borrowing leading to external deficit’s and debt’s accumulation. The outburst of an economic crisis was leading to an increase in interest rates, to the exclusion from the financial markets and to default. Moreover, it is remarked that the loans of the independence along with the revolutionary played the role of the “Original Sin” as they undermined the Greek credibility for the following years. Regarding the recent Greek debt crisis , the “Macroeconomic Populism” during the ‘80s decade along with the huge external borrowing during the first years of ’00s, and the inability of the Eurozone to be an Optimal Currency Area are described as substantial caused of the crisis. Also, it is remarked that the austerity policy proposed by the troika led the economy into a deep recession and to fall into a Mundellian Trap. Reforming the taxation system and the public sector would be a solution as it would facilitate the foreign investments. Finally, many reforms and the prudent management of the EU financial aid would stem a debt crisis ought to COVID pandemic.
The determinants and stabilization of public debt in industrial economies and Greece
(29-02-2024) Εφραιμίδης, Στέργιος; Efraimidis, Stergios; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics; Vasilatos, Evangelos; Varthalitis, Petros; Alogoskoufis, Georgios
Η παρούσα Εργασία, υιοθετώντας την Προσέγγιση της Νέας Πολιτικής Οικονομίας, εξετάζει την Αλληλεπίδραση των Πολιτικών και Οικονομικών Παραγόντων στη διαμόρφωση της Δυναμικής Πορείας του Δημοσίου Χρέους στις Ανεπτυγμένες Οικονομίες, και διερευνά τη δυνατότητα Εφαρμογής του Θεωρητικού αυτού πλαισίου στην περίπτωση της Ελλάδος.Η Νέα Πολιτική Οικονομία δίδει έμφαση στο ρόλο των Πολιτικών Θεσμών, των Δομών Εξουσίας και των Διανεμητικών Συγκρούσεων στη διαμόρφωση των Οικονομικών Αποτελεσμάτων, παρέχοντας μια Διαφοροποιημένη Οπτική για τη Διαδικασία Συσσωρεύσεως Δημοσίου Χρέους. Οι Υποστηρικτές της Νέας Πολιτικής Οικονομίας, ασπάζονται την άποψη ότι οι Πολιτικοί είναι ταυτόχρονα και Ασκούντες Οικονομικής Πολιτικής, αλλά και Άτομα που αναζητούν τα Οφέλη της Επανεκλογής τους. Ως αποτέλεσμα των ανωτέρω, έχουν την Τάση και το Κίνητρο να δημιουργούν Υψηλά και "Εμμονικά" Δημοσιονομικά Ελλείμματα και Πληθωρισμό. Στον αντίποδα, οι Θεωρητικοί της Νέας Πολιτικής Οικονομίας υποστηρίζουν, ακόμη, ότι λόγω της Ύπαρξης αυτών ακριβώς των Μεγάλων Αναποτελεσματικοτήτων, θα προκύψουν και εκείνα τα Ισχυρά Κίνητρα που θα συμβάλλουν στην εξάλειψη των τελευταίων. Η Εύρεση και η Εξέταση αυτών των Κινήτρων είναι άλλωστε και ο Σκοπός των Θεωρητικών Μοντέλων της Νέας Πολιτικής Οικονομίας.Το Πρώτο Τμήμα του παρόντος Δοκιμίου, αναλύει τους Προσδιοριστικούς Παράγοντες του Δημοσίου Χρέους στις Ανεπτυγμένες Οικονομίες υπό το πρίσμα της Προσεγγίσεως της Νέας Πολιτικής Οικονομικής, δίδοντας έμφαση στον Καθοριστικό Ρόλο των Εκλογικών Ετών, της Συμπεριφορά των Πολιτικών Κομμάτων με Σκοπό την Επανεκλογή τους, και φυσικά στον αντίκτυπο των Πολέμων και των Υφέσεων, στη Διαδικασία Συσσωρεύσεως Δημοσίου Χρέους.Στο Δεύτερο Τμήμα παρουσιάζεται ο Ρόλος των Πολιτικών Θεσμών, των Δημοσιονομικών Κανόνων και της Υπάρξεως Μηχανισμού Συντονισμού της Οικονομικής Πολιτικής στη Διαδικασία Σταθεροποίησης του Δημοσίου Χρέους.Το Τρίτο Τμήμα, χρησιμοποιώντας το Θεωρητικό Πλαίσιο της Νέας Πολιτικής Οικονομικής, αναλύει ένα Πολιτικο-Μακροοικονομικό Υπόδειγμα για τα "Εμμονικά" Δημοσιονομικά Ελλείμματα, αφού διερευνήσει πρώτα τη Μακροχρόνια Σχέση και Συμβολή τους στη Διαδικασία Συσσώρευσης Δημοσίου Χρέους. Επιδιώκει να εξετάσει μάλιστα αν ισχύει κάτι αντίστοιχο και για την περίπτωση της Ελλάδος, κάνοντας Εκτιμήσεις της Συνάρτησης Αντίδρασης του Δημοσιονομικού Ελλείμματος.
Economic cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations in Greece from 1948 to 2014
(Athens University of Economics and Business, 01-2014) Valasopoulos, Ilias; Philippopoulos, Apostolis; Tzavalis, Ilias; Alogoskoufis, Georgios
Thesis - Athens University of Economics and Business. Postgraduate, Department of Economics
Endogenous Technological Change, Paul M. Romer 1990
Koutantos, Nikolaos; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics; Alogoskoufis, Georgios
This essay tries to study, solve mathematically and interpret the solution of the Romer’s endogenous technological growth model that was published in 1990. This model is one of the first that treats growth as an endogenous procedure in contrast to the preexisting publications that treated growth as exogenous.The basic idea is that technological progress is the force that drives growth. The research sector, which is the first sector of the economy, uses human capital to produce knowledge in the form of designs. These designs are considered as non-rival, partially excludable inputs in the intermediate good sector, the second sector of the economy, and have a legal structure of infinitely lived patents. This legal form leads to a monopolistic competition environment in the sector. Finally the producer durables, that the intermediate good sector produces, are sold at a monopolistic price to the final output sector, which produces the final good.The whole procedure of the economic growth begins from the research sector, because knowledge is produced there and combined with the fact that there are positive external effects in the sector, the more knowledge is produced the more lasting the growth is.
Endogenous techonoligal growth, Romer 1990
Massaros, Giannis; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics; Alogoskoufis, Georgios
This study examines one of the first models of the endogenous growth literature, a model of endogenous technological growth introduced by Romer in 1990. The model is presented and algebraically solved. The solution of the model is interpreted, intuitively explained, and critically evaluated based on empirical findings. Romer’s 1990 model uses technological or knowledge spillovers as the engine that drives growth. Knowledge, thought of as blueprints for durables, is considered a non-rival partially excludable good. The partial excludability of knowledge, which is used as an input in the production function of the final good, is accomplished through a legal structure of infinitely lived patents. The existence of patents, and thus monopolies, implies a deviation from the classical perfect competition framework. A research sector is responsible for the provision of new knowledge to the economy. The externality effect of new knowledge renders research continuously more effective. It is this externality effect that supports perpetual growth. The model is solved for a balanced growth path, which is proven to exist and to be compatible with the static equilibrium conditions. The solution is then shown not to be Pareto optimal, and the Pareto optimal balanced growth path is calculated.
"Foggy windshield" in a new Keynesian model of the "natural rate"
(27-02-2022) Statheas, Christos-Antonios; Σταθέας, Χρήστος-Αντώνιος; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics; Philippopoulos, Apostolis; Varthalitis, Petros; Alogoskoufis, Georgios
Bernanke (2004) said that measurement errors create a “foggy windshield” on the way central bank sees the economy. Indeed, monetary policy when facing real time data is subject to measurement errors that introduces undesirable movements on the interest rate that initiates unnecessary fluctuations in both inflation and output gap (or unemployment). The current thesis is based on a dynamic stochastic model where we have assumed the existence of imperfect competition in product market, labor market insiders as well as predetermined nominal wage contracts. Under the assumption that monetary authorities follow an interest rate rule and with no measurement errors, there is a meaningful tradeoff between stabilizing inflation and unemployment faced by the central bank because the only way to achieve it is with unanticipated inflation or shocks that are not anticipated by insiders during the wage determination process. Thus, the central bank can choose to fight aggressively inflation(unemployment) with a cost of a relatively high unemployment(inflation). However, when positive(negative) measurement errors are introduced, the central bank tend to over(under) react to the respective deviation and set the interest rate higher (or lower) from the desired level. As a result, the central bank can no longer fight aggressively inflation and deviations of output from his natural rate. Furthermore, the central bank has no option than to react to deviations of inflation from the target sufficiently strong because a strong reaction is a sufficient condition for the stability of the inflationary process. Thus, measurement errors cannot be fully eliminated from monetary authorities but the impact of them can be minimized from an appropriately parametrized and conditional with the objectives of the bank, Taylor (or Wicksell) rule.
The Greek crisis, the asymmetries of the Eurozone and the perspectives for the future
(29-02-2024) Papakalodouka, Fotini; Παπακαλοδούκα, Φωτεινή; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics; Vassilatos, Evangelos; Varthalitis, Petros; Alogoskoufis, Georgios
This paper analyses the Greek events leading up to the 2010 crisis.It discusses at length the developments of 1980-2010, the accumulation of economic imbalances, and the causes that led to the Great Recession of 2010-2016.The general theses of this thesis are summarized as follows:The Greek economic crisis of 2010-2016 was the result of the accumulation of imbalances over the previous three decades. The causes of these imbalances were structural, social, institutional and political.During the years 1980-2010, fiscal deficits, deterioration of the already low international competitiveness, efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit, the entry of Greece into the euro area and then the external debt crisis of 2010 took place.Greece's entry into the Eurozone led to an increase in Greek external debt and then due to institutional weaknesses in the Eurozone, the country ended up imposing economic adjustment programs that eventually led to the great recession of 2010-2016.This paper addresses the conditions and reforms that need to take place for a sustainable growth of Greece within the Eurozone.
Keynesian economics, monetarism, new classical economics, and supply-side economics: from Great Depression to Great Recession
(28-02-2023) Χουζούρης, Ειρηναίος; Chouzouris, Eirinaios; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics; Vasilatos, Evangelos; Philippopoulos, Apostolos; Alogoskoufis, Georgios
Ο κόσμος υπέστη αναταραχή όταν ξέσπασε η Μεγάλη Ύφεση. Τράπεζες, επιχειρήσεις, και το κοινό υπέκυψαν στους τροχούς της οικονομικής ύφεσης. Οι τομείς της μεταποίησης και της γεωργίας επιδεινώθηκαν, η ανεργία εκτινάχθηκε στα ύψη και πολλά χρηματοπιστωτικά ιδρύματα χρεοκόπησαν. Ο Τζον Μέιναρντ Κέινς πρωτοστάτησε στην πρώτη μακροοικονομική θεωρία που προσπάθησε να εξηγήσει και να αναλύσει τους μηχανισμούς της Μεγάλης Ύφεσης μέσω των επιπτώσεων της συνολικής ζήτησης στον πληθωρισμό και την παραγωγή. Τα κεϋνσιανά οικονομικά ευδοκίμησαν μέχρι τη δεκαετία του 1960, όταν ο μονεταρισμός ξεκίνησε μια μακροοικονομική επανάσταση. Διατυπωμένη από τον Μίλτον Φρίντμαν, η θεωρία αυτή αντιτάχθηκε στις βασικές αρχές των κεϋνσιανών οικονομικών και μετατόπισε την προσοχή στις επιπτώσεις της κεντρικής τραπεζικής και της προσφοράς χρήματος στην οικονομία. Κατά τον στασιμοπληθωρισμό της δεκαετίας του 1970, η φήμη των κεϋνσιανών οικονομικών υποχώρησε περαιτέρω, καθώς αντιφάσκει με την αντίληψη του Κέινς για τα αντισταθμιστικά οφέλη του πληθωρισμού και της ανεργίας. Μια νέα μακροοικονομική θεωρία προέκυψε λόγω των επικρίσεων, ιδίως της κριτικής του Λούκας. Τα Νέα Κλασικά Οικονομικά οικοδόμησαν την ταυτότητά τους γύρω από το νεοκλασικό πλαίσιο, χρησιμοποιώντας μικροοικονομικά θεμέλια στη μακροοικονομική ανάλυση. Οι δύο κύριες υποθέσεις των Νέων Κλασικών Οικονομικών είναι οι ορθολογικές προσδοκίες και η μεγιστοποίηση της χρησιμότητας. Στο ίδιο χρονικό διάστημα, τα οικονομικά της Προσφοράς έκαναν το ντεμπούτο τους, αντιτιθέμενα στην κεϋνσιανή οικονομική σκέψη. Αυτή η μακροοικονομική θεωρία πρότεινε ότι το ελεύθερο εμπόριο, η μείωση των ρυθμίσεων και η μείωση των φόρων θα έφερναν οικονομική ανάπτυξη. Αυτές οι τέσσερις μακροοικονομικές θεωρίες αναπτύχθηκαν με την πάροδο του χρόνου και δημιούργησαν πολλούς επικρατέστερους απογόνους, όπως τα Νέα Κεϋνσιανά Οικονομικά που υιοθέτησαν τόσο κεϋνσιανά όσο και νεοκλασικά στοιχεία.
Modern Phillips Curve dynamics and the median wage
Kalevras, Kostas; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics; Alogoskoufis, Georgios
This research outlines the Phillips Curve history, examines recent developments in the unemployment – inflation research (especially since the Great Recession and its impact on price and wage inflation dynamics) and takes a fresh look at explaining median wage growth movements with a parsimonious non-linear wage Phillips Curve model. The model is evaluated through time and against the Great Recession shock and presents a fruitful line of research closer to the original Phillips specification.
On optimal monetary policy and the Taylor Rule in a New Keynesian Model
Giannoulakis, Stylianos; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics; Alogoskoufis, Georgios
Recently, many economists and some Republican members of Congress have targeted FED, arguing that the Central Bank of United States of America needs to adopt the Taylor interest rate rule instead of being totally free to conduct monetary policy. In this study, we try to analyze the stabilizing role of monetary policy in a new-Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model in which there exist Calvo type price fixities. The new-Keynesian model, unlike the neoclassical one, could explain the monetary cycles, i.e. the economic fluctuations caused by monetary disturbances. These shocks are transmitted in real terms by the stepwise adjustment of price levels. Moreover, we derive and analyze optimal monetary policy and emphasize the properties of the optimal monetary policy rule. More specifically, we discern two cases. Fist, we assume that the monetary authorities can perfectly handle inflation and we show that the optimal policy is first best, since the monetary authorities, by using as instrument the inflation rate, can attain two linearly independent targets: the stabilization of inflation and the stabilization of the welfare-relevant output gap. In other words, the divine coincidence, noted by Blanchard and Gali (2007) for the standard New Keynesian Model, is perfect applied in this model. In addition, we demonstrate that the optimal policy can be replicated by a set of appropriately parameterized Taylor rules. We prove that the optimal Taylor rule is not unique, as multiple sets of parameters are consistent with optimality. Also, we prove that the optimal policy could be replicated through a unique, appropriately parametrized Wicksell rule, according to which deviations of the nominal interest rate from its “natural” rate depend only on deviations of inflation from target. Second, we assume that the monetary authorities can imperfectly handle inflation and we conclude that optimal monetary policy is second best and can be replicated by a set of appropriately parameterized Wicksell rules and by a set of appropriately parameterized Taylor rules. We prove that the optimal Taylor rule is not unique, as multiple sets of parameters are consistent with optimality and that the Wicksell rule has two possible parameters which are consistent with optimality. Finally, we focus on the fact that New-Keynesian models do not satisfy the "natural rate property", and we suggest an effective confrontation for this problem.

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